Provisional Annual and Quarterly Estimates of GDP for Q4 Of 2023-24 – An Overview

On 31st May 2024, the National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) released its Press Note on the Provisional Estimates (PE) of Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the Financial Year (FY) 2023-24 and Quarterly Estimates of GDP for the Fourth quarter (January-March) of 2023-24 along with its expenditure components.

Along with that, it released Annual and quarterly estimates of GVA at Basic Prices by kind of economic activity along with year-on-year percent changes, and expenditure components of GDP.

It also released annual estimates of Gross/Net National Income and Per Capita Income for the years 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24.

Provisional Annual GDP Growth of Financial Year (FY) 2023-24

  • According to the MoSPI press release, Real GDP is estimated to grow at 8.2% in FY 2023-24 compared to 7.0% growth in FY 2022-23.
  • The Nominal GDP has witnessed a growth rate of 9.6% in FY 2023-24 over the growth rate of 14.2% in FY 2022-23. This means that GDP in terms of current prices has decreased in 2023-24 compared to 2022-23.
  • Real GVA grew by 7.2% in 2023-24 compared to 6.7% in 2022-23. Thanks to the Manufacturing, and Mining & Quarrying Sectors, which are the Major Contributors to Real GVA.

GDP

Source: MoSPI Press Release

Sector Wise Growth at Constant Prices (at 2011-12 Prices)
  • The Primary Sector showed a growth of 1% in 2023-24 as against 4.4% in 2022-23.
    • Mining & Quarrying sector registered a significant growth of 1% in 2023-24 over 1.9% in 2022-23.
  • The Secondary Sector showed a growth of 7% in 2023-24 over 1.9% in 2022-23.
    • The manufacturing sector showed a significant growth of 9% in 2023-24 over -2.2% in 2022-23.
    • The construction sector also grew by 9% in 2023-24 as against 9.4% in 2022-23.
  • The Tertiary Sector showed a growth of 6% in 2023-24 compared to 10.0% in 2022-23.
    • Financial, Real Estate & Professional Services showed a growth rate of 4% in 2023-24 as against 9.1% in 2022-23.

Quarterly Estimates of GDP (i.e. Fourth Quarter (Q4)) of 2023-24

  • In the Fourth Quarter (Q4) of 2023-24, Real GVA has been estimated to grow at 6.3% and Real GDP is estimated to grow at 7.8%.
  • In nominal terms, the GDP is expected to grow at 9.9% and GVA is projected to grow at 8.0% in Q4 of FY 2023-24.

GVA

Source: MoSPI Press Release

  • In Q4 of 2023-24, the Primary Sector grew at 1.1%, the Secondary sector showed a growth of 8.8% and the tertiary sector registered a growth of 6.7%.
  • Manufacturing and Construction registered a significant growth of 8.9% and 8.7% respectively in Q4 of 2023-24.

Composition of Nominal GVA for 2023-24 (Annual)

The Composition of Nominal GVA shows that there is a gradual increase in service sector contribution, which is 54.7% in 2023-24 compared to 54.2% in 2022-23.  While manufacturing sector increased mildly from 25.6% in 2022-23 to 25.7%; whereas the primary sector share decreased to 19.6% in 2023-24 from 20.2% in 2022-23.

Per Capita GDP, Income and Private Final Consumption Expenditure

  • During 2023-24, the Per Capita GDP is estimated at Rs. 1,24,600 and Rs. 1,16,216 in 2022-23.
  • During 2023-24, the Per Capita Income (i.e. Per Capita Net National income at Current Prices) is estimated at Rs. 1,84,205, and Rs. 1,69,496 in 2022-23.
  • For the year 2023-24, the Per Capita Private Final Consumption Expenditure at Current Prices is Rs. 1,27,760. For the year 2022-23, the Per capita PFCE at current prices is Rs. 1,18,755.

My Perspective / Conclusion

The data shows that India is estimated to grow at 8.2%. This means India is growing more strongly than expected. The GVA at basic prices also echoes the same. From the data, one can witness that the manufacturing sector is picking up. 

The composition of GVA shows that the service sector sharing is increasing gradually. The Per Capita GDP and Income also increased in 2023-24 in comparison with 2022-23. This means India is set to retain the spot of one of the fastest-growing economies in the world.

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