India's GDP doubled from $2.1 Trillion to $4.2 Trillion in 10 years

India’s GDP has doubled in the last decade, making it one of the fastest-growing economies in the world. Despite facing challenges like the Covid pandemic, India is set to become the third-largest economy in the world in the near future.

The latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) data shows that India’s GDP has grown by 103.08% at current prices, making it the fifth largest economy in the world, up from being the Seventh (7th) largest economy in 2015.

India, which once ranked among the ‘Fragile Five’, has managed to double its GDP in just ten (10) years and set to become the world fourth largest economy in the next year.

IMF graph scaled

If the present average growth rate continues then India will overtake Germany, to become the third-largest economy in the world, by the second quarter of 2027. At the present Germany’s GDP is $4.9 trillion.

In this article, we will look into how India has managed to double its GDP in just ten years, and what are the major factors that drove the economy in the past decade. Let us delve into it.

India’s GDP doubled from $2.1 trillion to $4.2 trillion in 10 years

According to the IMF, India’s nominal GDP is set to increase from $ 2.10359 trillion (i.e. $2,103.6 billion) to an estimated $4.2719 trillion (i.e. $4,271.9 billion) in 2025. This is a 103.08% increase in just 10 years.

Indias 100 percent GDP

Source: IMF data (the graph calculation is a percentage derived from Rounded figures)

India has shown strong GDP growth among the top 10 largest economies in the world. In the last 10 years, three (3) out of the top four (4) world economies have witnessed significant growth in their GDP.

Top 10 economies

Source: IMF data

The United States has experienced a growth of 65.82%, China witnessed a growth of 75.78%, and Germany grew by 43.74%. However, Japan’s economy contracted by 1.25% (i.e., -1.25%) in the same period (according to the IMF’s October 2024 World Economic Outlook).

Top 10 countrie

Source: IMF data

Based on nominal GDP, in 2014 India was ranked at Tenth (10th) Place, however, in 2015 India climbed to two spots and was ranked as Seventh (7th) largest economy. In 2021, India was ranked as the world’s Fifth (5th) largest economy. Thus marking a significant achievement in its economic growth.

Top 10 World Economies 2Source: IMF data

India doubles its GDP – Factors that drove the economy

The major factors, which drove the economy, are

  1. Agriculture: Agriculture has shown strong resilience in the past decade, despite erratic weather conditions. This has maintained the agriculture output as well as rural income constant over the past decade.
  2. Infrastructure: In the past decade, the Government’s investment on infrastructure has increased massively. The Effective Capital Expenditure (which includes Grants-in-Aid for capital creation) has increased from 4.5% in 2016-17 to 15.5% in 2025-26 (BE). Overall Capital Expenditure of Government has also increased from 2.8% in 2016-17 to 11.2% in 2025-26 (BE).
  3. Fiscal Deficit: By bringing the fiscal deficit to the acceptance level and concentrating on the prudence, the government has been able to increase its expenditures on Capex.
  4. Ease of Doing Business: Over the past 10 years, the Government has taken measures to increase ease of doing business. Before the World Bank discontinued its Ease of Doing Business Report (DBR) in 2020, a DBR report was released in October 2019. According to this report, India ranked 63rd out of 191 countries. Over 5 years, India’s rank in the DBR jumped from 142nd in 2014 to 63rd in 2019, a leap of 79 ranks. This shows how ease of doing business helped the economy to have faster growth.
  5. Service Sector: The Service sector was always been a major engine of growth for India over the years. The last decade was not an exception to it. Strong growth has been fuelled by service exports. Robust demand has driven exponential growth in both the logistics and retail sectors.

Conclusion / My perspective

India seems ready to be among the top three economies in the World in the next decades. However, this can happen only when the present average growth of the economy continues over the next few years.

Given the rising economic risks and the looming fear of US tariffs, India must adhere to its fiscal prudence while monetary policy should support a higher growth trajectory. Inflation is also a concern, which the policymakers should take care of, to achieve sustainable growth for the next few years.

*****