India’s real GDP estimated to grow at 7% during 2022-23 – First Advance Estimates

In 2016-17, the First Advance Estimates of GDP was introduced. The First Advance Estimates of GDP was introduced essentially to serve as inputs to the budget exercise. This is based on limited data and compiled using Benchmark-Indicator method, i.e. the estimates available for previous years (2021-22 in this case) are extrapolated using relevant indicators which reflects the performance of all sectors of the economy,

According to First Advance Estimates, 2022-23, released by Central Statistics Office, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on 06.01.2023, the Growth  rate of Real GDP (or GDP at Constant Prices at 2011-12) in the year 2022-23 is estimated at 7.0% as compared to the contraction of 8.7% in 2021-22. Real GVA at Basic Prices is estimated showing a growth of 6.7%. (see table 1)

The growth in nominal GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 15.4% as against 19.5% in 2021-22. Nominal GVA at Basic Prices is estimated showing a growth of  15.8%. (see table 2)

Table 1

Table 2

Source: Central Statistics Office, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI)

 

According to the First Advance Estimates of National Income, the real growth rate of Agriculture Forestry & Fishing is estimated to grow at 3.5% in 2022-23 as against 3.0% in 2021-22.

Mining and Manufacturing Sector is estimated to grow at 2.4 and 1.6% respectively in 2022-23. (See table 3).

Public Administration, Defence & Other Services* to grow at 7.9% in 2022-23 as against 12.6% in 2021-22.

It has to be noted that in the First Advance estimates except three sectors, namely Agriculture, Power and Utility, Trade & Services related to Broadcasting Sector (names are shortened for simplification) all other sectors are showing lesser growth than previous year.

This may be due to less demand or less consumption expenditure along with the fear of global recession to happen this year.

Though this is too early (as what we have is only Advanced Esitmates)  to say what exactly the 2022-23 growth rate would be as we have just entered the last quarter – where normally consumption expenditure improves due to festivity and public/ capex expenditure increases – and also we are yet to receive the third quarter data.

Table 3 Table 4

Source: Central Statistics Office, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI)