Second Advance Estimates and Quarterly Estimates of National Income 2023-24 – An Overview

On 29th February 2024, the National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) released its Press Note on the Second Advance Estimates (SAE) of National Income, 2023-24; Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for October-December quarter (Q3) of 2023-24 along with its expenditure components and following Revised Estimates of National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation.

In a single Press Note NSO has released three data namely

  1. First Revised Estimates (FRE) for the financial year 2022-23;
  2. Second Revised Estimates (SRE) and Final Estimates for the financial year 2021-22;
  3. Third Revised Estimates (TRE) and Final Estimates for the financial year 2020-21

According to the National Accounts Calendar release, these estimates of National Income in terms of both current and constant (2011-12) Prices were released. The Press release also stated that the TRE will be discontinued henceforth and SRE will be considered as the Final Estimates. Accordingly, the TRE of 2020-21 and SRE for 2021-22 are considered Final Estimates for the relevant years. Let’s get started

Quarterly Estimates for the Third Quarter and Second Advance Estimates of National Income 2023-24

Third Quarterly Estimates of National Income

The Real GDP growth during the Third Quarter (henceforth Q3) of 2023-24 is estimated to grow at a rate of 8.4%. In terms of value, the real GDP (i.e. GDP at constant Prices (2011-12 prices)) is estimated at Rs. 43.72 lakh crore, against Rs. 40.35 lakh crore in the corresponding period (i.e. Q3 of 2022-23).

Nominal GDP (or) GDP at current Prices in Q3 of 2023-24 is showing a growth rate of 10.1 percent. In terms of value, it is projected at Rs. 75.49 lakh crore, as against Rs. 68.58 lakh crore in Q3 of 2022-23.

Real GVA in Q3 of 2023-24 is showing a growth rate of 6.5%. The Nominal GVA in Q3 of 2023-24 is showing a growth rate of 8.4% (at current prices).

Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry & Fishing are estimated to grow at -0.8% in Constant Prices (2011-12) and 3.8% in Current prices. Manufacturing Sector is expected to grow at 11.6% in Real and 10.6% in nominal terms.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) is projected to grow at 32.4% in nominal and 29.4% in Real terms.

Second Advance Estimates of National Income

The Second Advance Estimate, for 2023-24 is estimated that the Real GDP will grow at 7.6% as compared to 7.0% growth in 2022-23. The GDP in terms of value is expected to attain a level of ₹172.90 lakh crore, against the FRE of GDP for the year 2022-23 of ₹160.71 lakh crore.

Nominal GDP for the year 2023-24 is expected to attain a level of Rs. 293.90 lakh core (in terms of value), as against Rs. 269.50 lakh crore in 2022-23. This is a growth rate of 9.1% in 2023-24 in comparison with 14.2% growth in 2022-23.

Real Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices, is expected to grow at 6.9% during 2023-24, against 6.7% in 2022-23.

The Nominal GVA at basic prices is projected at 8.2% in 2023-24 as against 14.2% in 2022-23.

Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry & Fishing are estimated to grow at 0.7% in Constant Prices (2011-12) and 4.6% in Current Prices. Manufacturing Sector is expected to grow at 8.5% in Real and 6.7% in nominal terms. Public Administration, Defence & Other Services are expected to grow at 7.7% in Real and 13.5% in nominal terms.

First Revised Estimates of National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation for the Financial Year 2022-23

NSO also Released its First Revised Estimates of National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation for the financial year 2022-23, along with Second Revised Estimates for the financial year 2021-22 and Third Revised Estimates for the financial year 2020-21.

According to the FRE, Real GDP is showing a growth of 7.0% with a value of Rs. 160.71 Lakhs for 2022-23. For the year 2021-22, the real growth is 9.7% with a value of Rs. 150.22 lakh Crore.

In terms of Nominal GDP for the year 2022-23, is estimated at Rs. 269.50 lakh crore against Rs. 235.97 lakh crore for the year 2021-22. In terms of the growth rate of 14.2% during 2022-23 as compared to the growth rate of 18.9% during 2021-22.

GVA and its Industry-wise Analysis

During 2022-23, at the aggregate level, the nominal GVA at basic prices has increased by 14.0% in comparison with 18.8% in 2021-22.

In the fiscal year 2022-23, the real GVA (Gross Value Added) has shown a growth of 6.7% at constant (2011-12) prices. This is in comparison to a growth of 9.4% in the previous fiscal year, 2021-22.

The industry-wise analysis for 2022-23, shows that growth rates of the Primary sector (comprising Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry, Fishing and Mining & Quarrying) have been estimated as 4.4%; the Secondary sector (comprising Manufacturing, Electricity, Gas, Water Supply & Other Utility Services, and Construction) has been 2.1% and Tertiary sector (Services) has been estimated at 10.0%.

The following table depicts the shares of broad sectors of the economy in overall GVA from 2011-12 to 2022-23 and also the annual growth rates during these periods:

GVA industry wise

Source: NSO, MoSPI

For the year 2022-23, Gross Capital Formation at current prices is estimated at Rs. 86.78 lakh crore which is 32.2% of GDP (i.e. GCF to GDP), as against 32.4% in 2021-22. The Real GCF (i.e. GCF to GDP at Constant (2o11-12) prices) was 36.7% in 2021-22 and 34.9% in 2022-23.

During 2022-23, the Gross Savings is estimated at Rs. 81.50 lakh crore against Rs. 73.63 lakh crore during 2021-22. The rate of gross saving to Gross National Disposable Income for 2022-23 is estimated at 29.7% as against 30.8% for 2021-22.

During 2022-23, the Per Capita Income (i.e. Per Capita Net National income at Current Prices) is estimated at Rs. 1, 69,496 and Rs. 1,50,906 in 20221-22.

For the year 2022-23, the Per Capita Private Final Consumption Expenditure at Current Prices, Rs. 1,18,755.  For the year 2021-22, the Per capita PFCE at current prices is Rs. 1,05,092.

My Perspective / Conclusion

The data shows that India is estimated to grow at 8.4% in 2023-24 as compared to 7.0% in 2022-23 . This means India is growing more strongly. The GVA at basic prices also echoes the same. From the data, one can witness that the manufacturing sector is picking up.  The Per Capita Income also increased in 2022-23 in comparison with 2021-22. This means India is set to retain the spot of one of the fastest-growing economies in the world.

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